Press Release

DBRS Morningstar Confirms Rating on Mercurius Funding N.V. / S.A.

Structured Credit

June 16, 2021

DBRS Ratings GmbH (DBRS Morningstar) confirmed its AA (sf) rating on the Class A notes issued by Mercurius Funding N.V. / S.A. (the Issuer).

The confirmation follows an annual review of the transaction and is based on the following analytical considerations:
-- Portfolio performance, in terms of delinquencies, defaults, and losses, as of the March 2021 payment date.
-- Base case probability of default (PD) and recovery rates on the remaining pool of receivables.
-- Current available credit enhancement to the Class A notes to cover the expected losses at the AA (sf) rating level.
-- Current economic environment and an assessment of sustainable performance, as a result of the Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19) pandemic.

The rating of the Class A notes addresses the timely payment of interest and the ultimate payment of principal payable on or before the Class A notes’ final maturity date in April 2035.

The Issuer is a securitisation collateralised by a portfolio of secured and unsecured loans originated and serviced by Belfius Bank SA/NV (Belfius Bank) to small and medium-size enterprises (SMEs) and self-employed individuals based in Belgium.

The transaction closed in May 2012, and in May 2014 (the Closing Date) new Class A and Class B notes were issued while the notes issued in 2012 were fully redeemed. In June 2018, an amendment to the transaction structure became effective, including changes to the principal priority of payments, introduction of performance triggers, reduction of the reserve fund, and decrease of the Class A and Class B notes’ coupon.

As of the March 2021 payment date, the structure consisted of EUR 435.1 million of Class A notes and EUR 390.4 million of Class B notes, backed by a EUR 785.6 million portfolio (excluding written-off loans).

PORTFOLIO PERFORMANCE
As of the March 2021 payment date, loans in arrears between 31 and 90 days represented 0.08% of the principal outstanding balance of the portfolio, while delinquencies greater than 90 days were 0.9%. Cumulative written-off loans were 1.0% of the original portfolio, with recoveries of 63.6% to date.

PORTFOLIO ASSUMPTIONS AND KEY DRIVERS
DBRS Morningstar conducted a loan-by-loan analysis on the remaining pool of receivables and updated its portfolio default and recovery assumptions on the outstanding portfolio to 35.5% and 63.3%, respectively, at the AA (sf) rating level. The base case PD has been maintained at 2.9%, including Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19) adjustments.

CREDIT ENHANCEMENT
As of the March 2021 payment date, the credit enhancement for the Class A notes stood at 49.7%, down from 52.9% last year, because of the pro rata amortisation of the Class A and Class B notes. The credit enhancement of the Class A notes considers the balance of the portfolio (excluding written-off loans) and the reserve fund.

The reserve fund is available to cover senior expenses, missed interest payments on the Class A notes, and the amounts of principal deficiency ledgers while the Class A notes are outstanding. The target amount of the reserve fund is defined in two stages: the Reserve Fund Level 1 (EUR 15.0 million) is replenished after the interest on the Class A notes has been paid, while the Reserve Fund Required Amount (EUR 40.0 million) is funded after the payment of the balance of principal deficiency ledgers.

Belfius Bank acts as the account bank for the transaction. Based on the account bank reference rating of Belfius Bank at A (high), which is one notch below the DBRS Morningstar Long Term Critical Obligations Rating of AA (low), the downgrade provisions outlined in the transaction documents, and other mitigating factors inherent in the transaction structure, DBRS Morningstar considers the risk arising from the exposure to the account bank to be consistent with the rating assigned to the Class A notes, as described in DBRS Morningstar's "Legal Criteria for European Structured Finance Transactions" methodology.

DBRS Morningstar analysed the transaction structure in its proprietary Excel-based cash flow engine.

The Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19) and the resulting isolation measures have caused an economic contraction, leading to sharp increases in unemployment rates and income reductions for many borrowers. DBRS Morningstar anticipates that payment holidays and delinquencies may continue to increase in the coming months for many SME transactions, some meaningfully. The ratings are based on additional analysis and, where appropriate, adjustments to expected performance as a result of the global efforts to contain the spread of the coronavirus. For this transaction, DBRS Morningstar increased the expected default rate for obligors in certain industries based on their perceived exposure to the adverse disruptions of the coronavirus.

As per DBRS Morningstar’s assessment, 4.1% and 18.6% of the outstanding portfolio balance represented industries classified in the mid-high and high-risk economic sectors, respectively. This led the underlying one-year PDs to be multiplied by 1.5 times (x) and 2.0x, respectively, as per DBRS Morningstar’s “European Structured Credit Transactions’ Risk Exposure to Coronavirus (COVID-19) Effect” commentary released on 18 May 2020, wherein DBRS Morningstar discussed the overall risk exposure of the SME sector to the coronavirus and provided a framework for identifying the transactions that are more at risk and more likely to be affected by the fallout of the pandemic on the economy. For more details, please see: https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/361098/european-structured-credit-transactions-risk-exposure-to-coronavirus-covid-19-effect and
https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/362712/european-structured-finance-covid-19-credit-risk-exposure-roadmap.

On 16 April 2020, the DBRS Morningstar Sovereign group released a set of macroeconomic scenarios for the 2020–22 period in select economies. These scenarios were last updated on 17 March 2021. For details, see the following commentaries: https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/375376/global-macroeconomic-scenarios-march-2021-update and https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/359903/global-macroeconomic-scenarios-application-to-credit-ratings. The DBRS Morningstar analysis considered impacts consistent with the moderate scenario in the referenced reports.

For more information regarding rating methodologies and Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19), please see the following DBRS Morningstar press release: https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/357883.

For more information regarding structured finance rating methodologies and Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19), please see the following DBRS Morningstar press release: https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/358308.

For more information regarding the structured finance rating approach and Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19), please see the following DBRS Morningstar press release: https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/359905.

ESG CONSIDERATIONS
A description of how DBRS Morningstar considers ESG factors within the DBRS Morningstar analytical framework can be found in the DBRS Morningstar Criteria: Approach to Environmental, Social, and Governance Risk Factors in Credit Ratings at: https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/373262.

Notes:
All figures are in euros unless otherwise noted.

The principal methodology applicable to the rating is the “Rating CLOs Backed by Loans to European SMEs” (30 September 2020).

DBRS Morningstar has applied the principal methodology consistently and conducted a review of the transaction in accordance with the principal methodology.

A review of the transaction legal documents was not conducted as the legal documents have remained unchanged since the most recent rating action.

Other methodologies referenced in this transaction are listed at the end of this press release. These may be found at: https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/about/methodologies.

For a more detailed discussion of the sovereign risk impact on Structured Finance ratings, please refer to “Appendix C: The Impact of Sovereign Ratings on Other DBRS Morningstar Credit Ratings” of the “Global Methodology for Rating Sovereign Governments” at: https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/350410/global-methodology-for-rating-sovereign-governments.

The sources of data and information used for this rating include investor reports provided by Belfius Bank and loan-by-loan data provided by the European DataWarehouse GmbH.

DBRS Morningstar did not rely upon third-party due diligence in order to conduct its analysis.

At the time of the initial rating, DBRS Morningstar was supplied with third-party assessments. However, this did not impact the rating analysis.

DBRS Morningstar considers the data and information available to it for the purpose of providing this rating to be of satisfactory quality.

DBRS Morningstar does not audit or independently verify the data or information it receives in connection with the rating process.

The last rating action on this transaction took place on 19 June 2020, when DBRS Morningstar confirmed the rating of the Class A notes at AA (sf).

Information regarding DBRS Morningstar ratings, including definitions, policies, and methodologies, is available at www.dbrsmorningstar.com.

To assess the impact of changing the transaction parameters on the rating, DBRS Morningstar considered the following stress scenarios as compared with the parameters used to determine the rating (the Base Case):

-- PD rates used: base case PD of 2.9%, a 10% and 20% increase of the base case PD.
-- Recovery Rates used: base case recovery rates of 63.3% at the AA (sf) rating level, a 10% and 20% decrease in the base case recovery rates. Note that the percentage decreases in the recovery rates are assumed for the other stress recovery rate levels.

DBRS Morningstar concludes that a hypothetical increase of the base case PD by 20%, or a hypothetical decrease of the recovery rate by 20%, ceteris paribus, would lead to a confirmation of the Class A notes at AA (sf). A scenario combining both an increase in the base case PD by 10% and a decrease in the base case recovery rate by 10%, ceteris paribus, would lead to a confirmation of the Class A notes at AA (sf). A scenario combining both an increase in the base case PD by 10% and a decrease in the base case recovery rate by 10%, ceteris paribus, would also lead to a confirmation of the Class A notes at AA (sf).

For further information on DBRS Morningstar historical default rates published by the European Securities and Markets Authority (ESMA) in a central repository, see:
https://cerep.esma.europa.eu/cerep-web/statistics/defaults.xhtml. DBRS Morningstar understands further information on DBRS Morningstar historical default rates may be published by the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) on its webpage: https://www.fca.org.uk/firms/credit-rating-agencies.

This rating is endorsed by DBRS Ratings Limited for use in the United Kingdom.

Lead Analyst: Shalva Beshia, Assistant Vice President
Rating Committee Chair: Alfonso Candelas, Senior Vice President
Initial Rating Date: 8 May 2012

DBRS Ratings GmbH
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Tel. +49 (69) 8088 3500

Geschäftsführer: Detlef Scholz
Amtsgericht Frankfurt am Main, HRB 110259

The rating methodologies used in the analysis of this transaction can be found at: https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/about/methodologies.

A description of how DBRS Morningstar analyses structured finance transactions and how the methodologies are collectively applied can be found at https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/278375.

For more information on this credit or on this industry, visit www.dbrsmorningstar.com or contact us at [email protected].

ALL MORNINGSTAR DBRS RATINGS ARE SUBJECT TO DISCLAIMERS AND CERTAIN LIMITATIONS. PLEASE READ THESE DISCLAIMERS AND LIMITATIONS AND ADDITIONAL INFORMATION REGARDING MORNINGSTAR DBRS RATINGS, INCLUDING DEFINITIONS, POLICIES, RATING SCALES AND METHODOLOGIES.

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