DBRS Morningstar Upgrades and Confirms Ratings on Caixabank Consumo 4 F.T.

DBRS Ratings GmbH (DBRS Morningstar) took the following rating actions on the notes issued by Caixabank Consumo 4 F.T. (the Issuer):

-- Class A Notes upgraded to AAA (sf) from AA (high) (sf)
-- Class B Notes confirmed at BB (high) (sf)

The rating on the Class A Notes addresses the timely payment of interest and the ultimate payment of principal on or before the legal final maturity date in July 2056. The rating on the Class B Notes addresses the ultimate payment of interest and principal on or before the legal final maturity date.

The rating actions follow an annual review of the transaction and are based on the following analytical considerations:
-- The portfolio performance, in terms of level of delinquencies and defaults, as of the January 2022 payment date;
-- Probability of default (PD), loss given default (LGD), and expected loss assumptions on the remaining receivables;
-- Current available credit enhancement to the Notes to cover the expected losses at their respective rating levels; and
-- Current economic environment and an assessment of sustainable performance, as a result of the Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19) pandemic.

The transaction is a securitisation of unsecured consumer loans granted to individuals residing in Spain by CaixaBank, S.A. (CaixaBank), which is also the servicer of the portfolio and acts as the issuer account bank. At closing, the static EUR 1.7 billion collateral portfolio consisted of loans granted primarily to borrowers in Catalonia (33.4% of the initial portfolio balance), Andalusia (17.3%), and Madrid (10.7%). The transaction closed in May 2018.

PORTFOLIO PERFORMANCE
As of the January 2022 payment date, loans that were 0 to 30 days, 30 to 60 days, and 60 to 90 days delinquent represented 0.7%, 0.4%, and 0.1% of the outstanding collateral balance, respectively, while loans more than 90 days delinquent amounted to 4.3%. Gross cumulative defaults amounted to 4.8% of the original portfolio balance, with cumulative recoveries of 5.9% to date.

PORTFOLIO ASSUMPTIONS AND KEY DRIVERS
DBRS Morningstar conducted a loan-by-loan analysis of the remaining pool of receivables and updated its base case PD and LGD assumptions to 6.0% and 70.3%, respectively, based on applicable updated performance data available from the originator.

CREDIT ENHANCEMENT
The subordination of the Class B Notes and the cash reserve provides credit enhancement to the Class A Notes while only the cash reserve provides credit enhancement to the Class B Notes, following the full repayment of the Class A Notes. As of the January 2022 payment date, credit enhancement to the Class A Notes increased to 60.4% from 33.6% at the time of the last rating action 12 months ago; credit enhancement to the Class B Notes increased marginally to 4.8% from 4.7%.

The transaction benefits from an amortising cash reserve available to cover senior expenses and all payments due on the senior-most class of notes outstanding at the time. The reserve was funded to EUR 68.0 million at closing through a subordinated loan granted by CaixaBank and, starting from the July 2019 payment date, has been amortising to its target level equal to 4% of the outstanding principal balance of the Notes. As of the January 2022 payment date, the cash reserve was at its target balance of EUR 11.7 million.

CaixaBank acts as the account bank for the transaction. Based on the account bank reference rating of A (high) on CaixaBank (which is one notch below the DBRS Morningstar public Long Term Critical Obligations Rating of AA (low)), the downgrade provisions outlined in the transaction documents, and other mitigating factors inherent in the transaction structure, DBRS Morningstar considers the risk arising from the exposure to the account bank to be consistent with the ratings assigned to the notes, as described in DBRS Morningstar's "Legal Criteria for European Structured Finance Transactions" methodology.

DBRS Morningstar analysed the transaction structure in Intex DealMaker.

The Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19) and the resulting isolation measures have caused an immediate economic contraction, leading in some cases to increases in unemployment rates and income reductions for many borrowers. DBRS Morningstar anticipates that delinquencies may continue to increase in the coming months for many asset-backed securities (ABS) transactions. The ratings are based on additional analysis to expected performance as a result of the global efforts to contain the spread of the coronavirus.

The DBRS Morningstar Sovereign group releases baseline macroeconomic scenarios for rated sovereigns. These scenarios were last updated on 9 December 2021. DBRS Morningstar analysis considered impacts consistent with the baseline scenario in the below referenced report. For details, see the following commentaries: https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/389454/baseline-macroeconomic-scenarios-for-rated-sovereigns-december-2021-update and https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/384482/baseline-macroeconomic-scenarios-application-to-credit-ratings.

ESG CONSIDERATIONS
A description of how DBRS Morningstar considers ESG factors within the DBRS Morningstar analytical framework can be found in the DBRS Morningstar Criteria: Approach to Environmental, Social, and Governance Risk Factors in Credit Ratings at: https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/373262.

Notes:
All figures are in euros unless otherwise noted.

The principal methodology applicable to the ratings is the “Master European Structured Finance Surveillance Methodology” (8 February 2022).

Other methodologies referenced in this transaction are listed at the end of this press release. These may be found at: http://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/about/methodologies.

DBRS Morningstar has applied the principal methodology consistently and conducted a review of the transaction in accordance with the principal methodology.

A review of the transaction legal documents was not conducted as the legal documents have remained unchanged since the most recent rating action.

For a more detailed discussion of the sovereign risk impact on Structured Finance ratings, please refer to “Appendix C: The Impact of Sovereign Ratings on Other DBRS Morningstar Credit Ratings” of the “Global Methodology for Rating Sovereign Governments” at: https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/381451/global-methodology-for-rating-sovereign-governments.

The DBRS Morningstar Sovereign group releases baseline macroeconomic scenarios for rated sovereigns. DBRS Morningstar analysis considered impacts consistent with the baseline scenarios as set forth in the following report: https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/384482/baseline-macroeconomic-scenarios-application-to-credit-ratings.

The sources of data and information used for these ratings include investor reports provided by CaixaBank Titulización, S.G.F.T., S.A. (the Management Company) and loan-level data provided by the European DataWarehouse GmbH.

DBRS Morningstar did not rely upon third-party due diligence in order to conduct its analysis.

At the time of the initial ratings, DBRS Morningstar was supplied with third-party assessments. However, this did not impact the rating analysis.

DBRS Morningstar considers the data and information available to it for the purposes of providing these ratings to be of satisfactory quality.

DBRS Morningstar does not audit or independently verify the data or information it receives in connection with the rating process.

The last rating action on this transaction took place on 6 April 2021, when DBRS Morningstar upgraded the rating on the Class A Notes to AA (high) (sf) from AA (sf) following the finalisation of the updated European legal criteria. Previously, at the time of the last annual review of the transaction on 3 March 2021, DBRS Morningstar confirmed the ratings on the Class A and Class B Notes at AA (sf) and BB (high) (sf), respectively.

Information regarding DBRS Morningstar ratings, including definitions, policies, and methodologies, is available at www.dbrsmorningstar.com.

To assess the impact of changing the transaction parameters on the ratings, DBRS Morningstar considered the following stress scenarios as compared with the parameters used to determine the ratings (the Base Case):

-- DBRS Morningstar expected a lifetime base case PD and LGD for the pool based on a review of the current assets. Adverse changes to asset performance may cause stresses to base case assumptions and therefore have a negative effect on credit ratings.
-- The base case PD and LGD of the current pool of loans for the Issuer are 6.0% and 70.3%, respectively.
-- The risk sensitivity overview below illustrates the ratings expected if the PD and LGD increase by a certain percentage over the base case assumption. For example, if the LGD increases by 50%, the rating on the Class A Notes would be expected to remain at AAA (sf), assuming no change in the PD. If the PD increases by 50%, the rating on the Class A Notes would be expected to remain at AAA (sf), assuming no change in the LGD. Furthermore, if both the PD and LGD increase by 50%, the rating on the Class A Notes would be expected to remain at AAA (sf).

Class A Notes Risk Sensitivity:
-- 25% increase in LGD, expected rating of AAA (sf)
-- 50% increase in LGD, expected rating of AAA (sf)
-- 25% increase in PD, expected rating of AAA (sf)
-- 50% increase in PD, expected rating of AAA (sf)
-- 25% increase in PD and 25% increase in LGD, expected rating of AAA (sf)
-- 25% increase in PD and 50% increase in LGD, expected rating of AAA (sf)
-- 50% increase in PD and 25% increase in LGD, expected rating of AAA (sf)
-- 50% increase in PD and 50% increase in LGD, expected rating of AAA (sf)

Class B Notes Risk Sensitivity:
-- 25% increase in LGD, expected rating of BB (sf)
-- 50% increase in LGD, expected rating of BB (low) (sf)
-- 25% increase in PD, expected rating of BB (high) (sf)
-- 50% increase in PD, expected rating of BB (low) (sf)
-- 25% increase in PD and 25% increase in LGD, expected rating of B (high) (sf)
-- 25% increase in PD and 50% increase in LGD, expected rating of B (sf)
-- 50% increase in PD and 25% increase in LGD, expected rating of B (sf)
-- 50% increase in PD and 50% increase in LGD, expected rating below B (sf)

For further information on DBRS Morningstar historical default rates published by the European Securities and Markets Authority (ESMA) in a central repository, see: http://cerep.esma.europa.eu/cerep-web/statistics/defaults.xhtml. DBRS Morningstar understands further information on DBRS Morningstar historical default rates may be published by the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) on its webpage: https://www.fca.org.uk/firms/credit-rating-agencies.

These ratings are endorsed by DBRS Ratings Limited for use in the United Kingdom.

Lead Analyst: Daniel Rakhamimov, Assistant Vice President
Rating Committee Chair: Alfonso Candelas, Senior Vice President
Initial Rating Date: 25 May 2018

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The rating methodologies used in the analysis of this transaction can be found at: http://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/about/methodologies.

-- Master European Structured Finance Surveillance Methodology (8 February 2022), https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/392000/master-european-structured-finance-surveillance-methodology.
-- Rating European Consumer and Commercial Asset-Backed Securitisations (29 October 2021), https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/387042/rating-european-consumer-and-commercial-asset-backed-securitisations.
-- Rating European Structured Finance Transactions Methodology (30 July 2021), https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/382486/rating-european-structured-finance-transactions-methodology.
-- Legal Criteria for European Structured Finance Transactions (29 July 2021), https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/382171/legal-criteria-for-european-structured-finance-transactions.
-- DBRS Morningstar Criteria: Approach to Environmental, Social, and Governance Risk Factors in Credit Ratings (3 February 2021), https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/373262/dbrs-morningstar-criteria-approach-to-environmental-social-and-governance-risk-factors-in-credit-ratings.
-- Operational Risk Assessment for European Structured Finance Servicers (16 September 2021), https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/384513/operational-risk-assessment-for-european-structured-finance-servicers.
-- Interest Rate Stresses for European Structured Finance Transactions (24 September 2021), https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/384920/interest-rate-stresses-for-european-structured-finance-transactions.

A description of how DBRS Morningstar analyses structured finance transactions and how the methodologies are collectively applied can be found at http://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/278375.

For more information on this credit or on this industry, visit www.dbrsmorningstar.com or contact us at [email protected].